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Table 2 Cumulative impact of a one-peso tobacco tax increase on health and financing outcomes per region in Mexico

From: The distributional effects of tobacco tax increases across regions in Mexico: an extended cost-effectiveness analysis

Outcomes by income group

Regions

Total

Northwest

Northeast

West

Centre

South

Number of smokers who quit smoking (in thousands)

 First (bottom 20%)

46.7

38.8

45.5

103.7

151.3

386.0

 Second

52.3

50.4

78.3

150.3

80.5

411.9

 Third

49.4

52.9

75.4

125.0

34.2

336.7

 Fourth

33.3

41.5

47.8

88.2

24.1

234.8

 Fifth (top 20%)

18.2

26.3

25.8

51.3

7.9

129.5

 Total

200.0

209.8

272.8

518.4

297.9

1499.0

 First:fifth ratio

2.6

1.5

1.8

2.0

19.3

3.0

Total life years gained (in thousands)

 First (bottom 20%)

392.0

321.0

375.9

873.2

1261.6

3223.6

 Second

408.2

422.7

676.3

1332.0

703.4

3542.6

 Third

398.1

453.0

649.6

1053.8

289.6

2844.1

 Fourth

272.1

351.1

405.6

736.9

203.4

1969.1

 Fifth (top 20%)

147.0

216.6

216.0

416.8

65.9

1062.2

 Total

1617.4

1764.4

2323.3

4412.7

2523.8

12,641.7

 First:fifth ratio

2.7

1.5

1.7

2.1

19.1

3.0

Total deaths averted (in thousands)

 First (bottom 20%)

19.6

16.2

18.7

43.9

62.9

161.2

 Second

20.8

21.1

33.4

65.3

34.6

175.4

 Third

20.1

22.5

32.3

52.6

14.5

141.8

 Fourth

13.5

17.6

20.2

36.9

10.1

98.4

 Fifth (top 20%)

7.4

10.9

11.0

20.8

3.3

53.3

 Total

81.4

88.2

115.5

219.6

125.4

630.1

 First:fifth ratio

2.6

1.5

1.7

2.1

19.2

3.0

Treatment cost averted (MX$ (PPP$), in billions)

 First (bottom 20%)

1.4 (0.1)

1.1 (0.1)

1.3 (0.1)

2.8 (0.3)

3.9 (0.4)

10.5 (1.1)

 Second

1.4 (0.1)

1.6 (0.2)

2.4 (0.3)

4.4 (0.5)

2.4 (0.3)

12.2 (1.3)

 Third

1.5 (0.2)

1.7 (0.2)

2.5 (0.3)

3.9 (0.4)

1.0 (0.1)

10.6 (1.1)

 Fourth

1.0 (0.1)

1.3 (0.1)

1.6 (0.2)

2.8 (0.3)

0.7 (0.1)

7.4 (0.8)

 Fifth (top 20%)

0.5 (0.1)

0.8 (0.1)

0.9 (0.1)

1.4 (0.1)

0.2 (0.0)

3.8 (0.4)

 Total

5.9 (0.6)

6.4 (0.7)

8.8 (0.9)

15.2 (1.6)

8.3 (0.9)

44.6 (4.6)

 First:fifth ratio

2.7

1.4

1.4

2.0

16.4

2.7

Additional tax revenue per year (MX$ (PPP$), in billions)

 First (bottom 20%)

0.07 (0.01)

0.05 (0.01)

0.13 (0.01)

0.10 (0.01)

0.11 (0.01)

0.46 (0.05)

 Second

0.41 (0.04)

0.20 (0.02)

0.42 (0.05)

0.37 (0.04)

0.11 (0.01)

1.50 (0.16)

 Third

0.65 (0.07)

0.47 (0.05)

0.77 (0.08)

0.93 (0.10)

0.20 (0.02)

3.02 (0.33)

 Fourth

0.80 (0.09)

0.78 (0.08)

1.29 (0.14)

1.44 (0.16)

0.33 (0.04)

4.63 (0.50)

 Fifth (top 20%)

1.07 (0.12)

1.27 (0.14)

1.76 (0.19)

2.22 (0.24)

0.28 (0.03)

6.59 (0.71)

 Total

2.99 (0.32)

2.77 (03.30)

4.36 (0.47)

5.06 (0.55)

1.02 (0.11)

16.21 (1.75)

 First:fifth ratio

0.07

0.04

0.07

0.05

0.40

0.07

Number of people avoiding poverty (in thousands)

 First (bottom 20%)

3.5

2.6

2.9

6.3

5.8

21.0

 Second

18.4

20.1

29.6

56.5

32.7

157.3

 Third

7.3

6.6

18.2

39.3

11.1

82.4

 Fourth

2.1

2.5

2.9

4.9

1.6

14.0

 Fifth (top 20%)

0.0

0.0

0.4

0.8

0.2

1.4

 Total

31.2

31.8

54.0

107.8

51.3

276.1

 First:fifth ratio

–

–

7.3

7.9

29.0

15.0

Number of people avoiding catastrophic health expenditures (in thousands)

 First (bottom 20%)

18.2

14.1

15.9

35.8

52.3

136.3

 Second

18.4

20.2

29.6

56.5

32.7

157.4

 Third

19.3

21.6

31.0

50.5

13.9

136.1

 Fourth

12.2

17.3

19.6

35.6

9.7

94.5

 Fifth (top 20%)

5.8

8.6

9.9

16.6

3.2

44.1

 Total

73.9

81.8

106.1

195.0

111.7

568.4

 First:fifth ratio

3.1

1.6

1.6

2.2

16.4

3.1

  1. A one-peso tax increase is roughly equivalent to a 44% increase in price. The benefits of the tax increase would be observed during the lifetime of the current smoking cohort, except for the additional tax revenue that would be annual. Northeast = Baja California, Baja California Sur, Chihuahua, Durango, Sonora and Sinaloa. Northwest = Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Tamaulipas and Zacatecas. West = Aguascalientes, Colima, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacán and Nayarit. Centre = Ciudad de México, Estado de México, Hidalgo, Morelos, Puebla, Querétaro and Tlaxcala. South = Campeche, Chiapas, Guerrero, Oaxaca, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán. PPP$ = International dollars adjusted for purchasing power parity 2019. MX$ = Mexican pesos of 2020