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Table 2 Verbally reported principles and average hit ratesa

From: Allocating health care resources: a questionnaire experiment on the predictive success of rules

Principle

Verbal reporters: Fraction of respondents describing the principlea (N = 155)

Areas of predictionb

Actual average hit rates:b Total sample (N = 162)

Actual average hit rates:b Only corresponding verbal reporters

Distribution of hits of corresponding verbal reporters (# subjects x hits)

Equality of health levels (EH)

0.1226

0.1802

0.1801

0.3819

3x2, 3x3, 4x5, 1x6, 2x7, 2x8, 1x9, 2x10, 1x16

Equality of health gains (EG)

0.2000

0.1802

0.3913

0.6575

1x3, 3x4, 4x7, 1x8, 3x9, 5x10, 3x11, 1x12, 3x14, 1x15, 6x16

Equality of treatment time (ER)

0.1290

0.1802

0.2594

0.4875

1x2, 2x3, 1x5, 5x6, 3x7, 2x9, 2x10, 2x11, 2x16

Sum-maximization/Utilitarianism (U)

0.0516

0.1802

0.0719

0.1094

5x0, 1x3, 1x4, 1x7

No Exclusion

0.6194

0.7376

0.9481

0.9631

1x12, 3x13, 13x14, 18x15, 61x16

Preference for sicker patient (lower health level)

0.2839

0.5310

0.6256

0.7200

1x4, 2x6, 2x8, 2x9, 6x10, 7x11, 4x12, 11x13, 7x14, 1x15, 1x16

Conditional rulesc

0.3290

-

-

-

-

Thresholdsc

0.2129

-

-

-

-

  1. aMultiple answers were permitted
  2. bThe term “average hit rate” denotes the average fraction of actual choices in all situations fitting to the corresponding principle. See Additional file 2: Table S7 for details on the calculation of areas of prediction and actual average hit rates
  3. cConditional rules and rules utilising threshold values are very diverse and do not always and in all situations result in clear allocation proposals