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Table 2 Probabilities in pathways based on expert opinions

From: Cost of bladder cancer in Lebanon before and after the economic collapse: a probabilistic modeling study

Questions

Consensus

Pre-collapse (%)

Post-collapse (%)

Pathway of diagnosis of BC

  

1. When patients are diagnosed with a bladder polyp, how many of them will undergo TURBT?

95

90

2. How many patients do nothing?

5

10

 a. If they choose to do nothing, how many patients will come back and have a late TURBT?

65

60

 b. If they choose to do nothing, how many patients will never come back?

35

40

Pathway of low-risk BC

  

1. How many patients do the optimal treatment and follow-up?

50

30

2. How many patients do the suboptimal treatment and follow-up?

30

40

3. How many patients do not do treatment and follow-up?

20

30

Pathway of intermediate-risk BC

  

1. How many patients do the optimal treatment and follow-up?

40

30

2. How many patients do the suboptimal treatment and follow-up?

50

50

3. How many patients do not do treatment and follow-up?

10

20

Pathway of high-risk BC

  

1. How many patients do the optimal treatment and follow-up?

30

20

2. How many patients do the suboptimal treatment and follow-up?

65

70

3. How many patients do not do treatment and follow-up?

5

10

Pathway of very high-risk BC

  

1. How many patients do the optimal treatment and follow-up?

30

20

2. How many patients do the suboptimal treatment and follow-up?

65

70

3. How many patients do not do treatment and follow-up?

5

10

Pathway of invasive risk BC

  

1. How many patients do the optimal treatment and follow-up?

80

60

 a. In the optimal scenario, how many do neoadjuvant chemotherapy + radical cystectomy?

80

90

 b. In the optimal scenario, how many do TMT?

20

10

2. How many patients do the suboptimal treatment and follow-up?

15

30

3. How many patients do not do treatment and follow-up?

5

10

Pathway of metastatic risk BC

  

1. How many patients do treatment and follow-up?

90

80

 a. How many patients undertake chemotherapy in the first line?

85

85

 b. How many patients undertake immunotherapy in the first line?

15

15

2. How many do not do treatment and follow-up?

10

20

  1. BC, Bladder Cancer; TMT, Tri-Modal Therapy; TURBT, Transurethral Resection of Bladder Tumor.