Table 4 Key variables for sensitivity analysis to ensure sustainability

Contributory scenario

1) Formal sector contributions increased from 2.4% at the baseline to 6% then 7.5%, 8% and finally 11% of gross pay from 2019 onwards.

2) Pensioners’ contributions were varied from 2.4 to 4% and finally 5% of pensions from 2019 onwards.

3) Annual subsidies were put at KSh 4500 per exempted person at the baseline and reached KSh 15000 per exempted person within a decade.

4) Annual contributions from the informal sector were started at KSh 2000 at the baseline and increased to KSh 3401 in 2023 and KSh 4536 in 2030 per insured adult, child and principal contributor.

5) Administrative costs were varied from 12% of total revenue at the baseline to 11, 10 and 8% by 2023 and 7% from 2024 onwards.

Non-contributory scenario

1) Same as 1–3 above.

2) All informal sector workers and indigent populations were exempted. Cost per exempted is the same for all scenarios but the difference is that in the contributory scenario has fewer exemptions (indigents only) while the contributory scenario has both informal sector and indigents exempted. This has important implications on amounts of revenues generated.

3) Administrative costs reduced from 12% to stay at 5% throughout the simulation.